The effect of offshore wind power on beach use and tourism: a contingent behavior analysis on the East Coast of the United States

Date
2016
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University of Delaware
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to estimate the impact of offshore wind power projects on beach recreation on the East Coast of the United States. This is done using stated-preference contingent-behavior data from a 2015 online survey of 2,051 randomly drawn residents over 20 states on the east coast. The data were stratified to oversample beachgoers, but included non-beachgoers as well. Respondents were shown visual simulations of offshore wind power projects as they would have appeared on a beach they recently visited and were asked how their presence would have affected their beach trips. -- This dissertation focuses on three core questions: (1) the effect of offshore wind power projects on a beachgoer's beach experience, (2) the likelihood that a beachgoer would change their trip plans due to the presence of an offshore wind power project, and (3) the likelihood that a beachgoer or non-beachgoer would take a special trip to see an offshore wind power project. In all cases, I am interested in the effect of offshore wind power at different distances offshore. This is critical because the cost of placing wind power projects farther offshore may increase the cost of delivering the energy generated. Commensurately, the impacts of offshore wind power on beach recreation are likely to decline with the distance they are located offshore. This dissertation quantifies this latter impact. -- These three core questions are analyzed in the context of economic models of choice using ordered or standard logit models. As expected, the impacts decrease the farther wind power projects are located offshore. Fifty-three percent of the respondents report their beach experience would worsen if the project is located 2.5 miles offshore. -- This percentage falls as the projects are moved farther from the coast -- 48%, 38%, 29%, 20%, 16% and 10% at 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15 and 20 miles from shore, respectively. At the same time, 10% of respondents report that their beach experience would improve if projects are located 2.5 miles from shore. This number increases to 17% at 20 miles from shore. -- Trip change rates increase the closer the offshore wind power projects are from the shore. Twenty-seven percent of beachgoers said they would change their beach trip plans if the turbines are 2.5 miles offshore. 21%, 13%, 11%, 6%, 4% and 4% of beachgoers said they would change their beach trip plans if the projects are 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15 and 20 miles from shore, respectively. Seventeen percent of beachgoers say they would substitute beaches if the turbines are 2.5 miles from shore. 16%, 9%, 8%, 5%, 3% and 2% of beachgoers would substitute beaches if the projects are 5, 7.5, 10, 12.5, 15 and 20 miles from shore, respectively. -- With these trip change rates, consumer losses may be expected at beaches with wind power projects as close as 2.5 miles and as far as 20 miles. At Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, there is a consumer loss of roughly $225 million if the turbines are 2.5 miles from shore. The consumer loss falls to $37.5 million if the turbines are 20 miles from shore. At Fenwick Island, Delaware, consumer losses are smaller: $16.9 million if the turbines are 2.5 miles from shore and $3 million if the turbines are 20 miles from shore. Ocean City, Maryland, and Ocean City, New Jersey show consumer losses of $219 million and $214 million, respectively, if the turbines are 2.5 miles from shore. At 20 miles from shore, the consumer losses are $29 million and $36 million in Ocean City, Maryland, and Ocean City, New Jersey, respectively. -- The likelihood of respondents taking a special trip just to see the offshore wind power projects was also investigated. On average, 9% of respondents would take a special trip to see the projects. Seventy percent of respondents reported that this would be a one-time visit. -- In addition, this dissertation covers response data on expected impacts on beach property, the likelihood of taking a boat tour to see a wind power project, and the perceived impact on tourism. On average, 20% of respondents would take a boat tour of the wind power projects at costs ranging from $10, $25, $35, $50, $100, $150 and $300. Fourteen percent of respondents believe offshore wind power projects would either increase or moderately increase tourism. Thirty-six percent believe they would instead decrease or moderately decrease tourism. -- Thirty percent of respondents who own a primary residence within 5 miles of an ocean beach said they would either sell or likely sell their property as a result of the offshore wind power projects' proximity. Twenty-eight percent of respondents who own a secondary residence in or near a beach community said they would either sell or likely sell their property because of the wind power projects. Thirteen and twenty-seven percent of primary and secondary residence owners, respectively, believe the value of their properties will go up either substantially or moderately as a result of the offshore wind power projects' proximity to their houses. Thirty percent of both primary and secondary residence owners believe it would lower their property values either substantially or moderately.
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