The Future is Not The Past Repeated: Projecting Disasters of the 21st Century From Present Trends
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Date
1995
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Disaster Research Center
Abstract
Description
My basic theme is a very simple one. The future is not the past repeated. This is as true in the
disaster area as anywhere else. If we are interested in what we will face by way of disasters to come, we cannot extrapolate only from the past.
This is important from a practical as well as a theoretical viewpoint. Research has consistently found that organizations and communities impacted by disasters, plan for future ones based on their last experience with such an occasion. Now it would seem reasonable to plan for the future based on
past experiences. However, as just said, the future is not simply a repetition of the past.
Keywords
trends, disaster research, disaster impact, future