School of Marine Science & Policy
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Browsing School of Marine Science & Policy by Subject "climate action"
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Item Comparison of Extreme Coastal Flooding Events between Tropical and Midlatitude Weather Systems in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays for 1980–2019(Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2022-04-26) Callahan, John A.; Leathers, Daniel J.; Callahan, Christina L.Coastal flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards facing the U.S. mid-Atlantic region today. Impacts in this heavily populated and economically significant region are caused by a combination of the location’s exposure and natural forcing from storms and sea level rise. Tropical cyclones (TCs) and midlatitude (ML) weather systems each have caused extreme coastal flooding in the region. Skew surge was computed over each tidal cycle for the past 40 years (1980–2019) at several tide gauges in the Delaware and Chesapeake Bays to compare the meteorological component of surge for each weather type. Although TCs cause higher mean surges, ML weather systems can produce surges just as severe and occur much more frequently, peaking in the cold season (November–March). Of the top 10 largest surge events, TCs account for 30%–45% in the Delaware and upper Chesapeake Bays and 40%–45% in the lower Chesapeake Bay. This percentage drops to 10%–15% for larger numbers of events in all regions. Mean sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields of the top 10 surge events from ML weather systems show a low pressure center west-southwest of “Delmarva” and a semistationary high pressure center to the northeast prior to maximum surge, producing strong easterly winds. Low pressure centers intensify under upper-level divergence as they travel eastward, and the high pressure centers are near the GPH ridges. During lower-bay events, the low pressure centers develop farther south, intensifying over warmer coastal waters, with a south-shifted GPH pattern relative to upper-bay events. Significance Statement Severe coastal flooding is a year-round threat in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, and impacts are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency. Research into the meteorological contribution to storm surge, separate from mean sea level and tidal phase, will increase the scientific understanding and monitoring of changing atmospheric conditions. Tropical cyclones and midlatitude weather systems both significantly impact the mid-Atlantic region during different times of year. However, climate change may alter the future behavior of these systems differently. Understanding the synoptic environment and quantifying the surge response and subbay geographic variability of each weather system in this region will aid in public awareness, near-term emergency preparation, and long-term planning for coastal storms.Item Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales(Global Change Biology, 2022-06-14) van Woesik, Robert; Shlesinger, Tom; Grottoli, Andréa G.; Toonen, Rob J.; Vega Thurber, Rebecca; Warner, Mark E.; Hulver, Ann Marie; Chapron, Leila; McLachlan, Rowan H.; Albright, Rebecca; Crandall, Eric; DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Donovan, Mary K.; Eirin-Lopez, Jose; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Huang, Danwei; Humanes, Adriana; Krueger, Thomas; Madin, Joshua S.; Manzello, Derek; McManus, Lisa C.; Matz, Mikhail; Muller, Erinn M.; Rodriguez-Lanetty, Mauricio; Vega-Rodriguez, Maria; Voolstra, Christian R.; Zaneveld, JesseThe global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km2) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.Item Hydrodynamics and Sediment-Transport Pathways along a Mixed-Energy Spit-Inlet System: A Modeling Study at Chincoteague Inlet (Virginia, USA)(Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 2023-05-18) Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Messina, Francesca; Sakib, Md Mohiuddin; Zou, Shan; Foster-Martinez, Madeline; Bregman, Martijn; Hein, Christopher J.; Fenster, Michael S.; Shawler, Justin L.; McPherran, Kaitlyn; Trembanis, Arthur C.Tidal-inlet systems are dynamic features that respond to short-term (e.g., storms) and longer-term processes (e.g., sea-level rise, changes in tidal prism). The Chincoteague Inlet system, located along the northern Eastern Shore of Virginia (USA), is a dynamic coastal complex that experiences rapid change associated with sediment redistribution and a shifting inlet throat due to the southern elongation of adjacent Assateague Island. In this study, a numerical model based on Delft3D with coupled flow–waves, multiclass sediment transport, and morphologic feedback was developed to quantify the hydrodynamic and geomorphic controls within this rapidly evolving inlet–spit system and to develop a more comprehensive understanding of regional to local controls on sediment-transport pathways. Model results show that most of the sand transport along southern Assateague Island is sequestered nearshore and proximally in deeper sinks within Fishing Point, and, of that, only finer sand sizes are transported around the spit, confirming previous analysis and hypothesis. The model also showed that sand transport toward the south increases along Wallops Island and quantified spatially explicit transport trends for selected sediment classes, revealing that coarser sediment bypassing is a punctuated process that is proportional to storms.Item Impact of Marine Heatwaves on Air-Sea CO2 Flux Along the US East Coast(Geophysical Research Letters, 2024-01-02) Edwing, Kelsea; Wu, Zelun; Lu, Wenfang; Li, Xinyu; Cai, Wei-Jun; Yan, Xiao-HaiMarine heatwaves (MHWs) are extremely warm ocean temperature events that significantly affect marine environments, but their effects on the coastal carbonate system are still uncertain. In this study, we systematically quantify MHWs' impacts on air-sea carbon dioxide (CO2) flux anomalies (FCO2′) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) from 1992 to 2020. During the longest MHW in both regions, oceanic CO2 uptake capabilities substantially decreased, primarily due to significant increases in the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2sea). For all cases, MHWs played a more significant role in driving pCO2sea changes in the MAB than the SAB, where non-thermal drivers dominated pCO2sea variability. In the MAB, weakened wind speeds related to wintertime atmospheric perturbations increase ocean temperatures and pCO2sea, further reducing CO2 uptake during winter MHWs. This work is the first to connect extreme temperatures to coastal air-sea CO2 fluxes. The reduction in CO2 absorption noted during MHWs in this study has important implications for coastal regions to act as continued sinks for excess CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Key Points - Marine heatwaves (MHWs) primarily generated positive sea surface pCO2 (pCO2sea) anomalies in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) but had a larger impact on air-sea CO2 flux anomalies in the MAB - Reduced wind speeds amplified MHW contributions during CO2 sink months and counteracted them during CO2 source months - In the MAB, wintertime atmospheric perturbations related to zonal shifts in the jet stream produce slower wind speeds which aid in generating air-sea heat flux type MHW events that ultimately reduce oceanic CO2 uptake Plain Language Summary The transfer of carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and ocean is sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) changes because warmer SSTs increase the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 and reduce the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. It is, therefore, conceivable that marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are extremely warm ocean temperature events, could modify how carbon moves between the ocean and the atmosphere. This study provides the first attempt to evaluate the impacts of MHWs on the air-sea CO2 flux (FCO2) anomalies along the US East Coast, encompassing the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and South Atlantic Bight (SAB) during 1992–2020. Both regions experienced reduced CO2 absorption in response to the longest MHWs in each region. These extreme temperatures had a larger impact on CO2 absorption in the MAB compared to the SAB, where non-temperature factors were more influential. The coastal ocean plays an important role in helping to mitigate human-induced climate change by absorbing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. As such, the demonstrated reduced absorption of the ocean associated with MHWs in this study, which might also apply to other coastal locations, has vital implications for the efficiency of the ocean in offsetting global warming impacts.Item Interactive effects of light, CO2 and temperature on growth and resource partitioning by the mixotrophic dinoflagellate, Karlodinium veneficum(PLOS ONE, 2021-10-27) Coyne, Kathryn J.; Salvitti, Lauren R.; Mangum, Alicia M.; Ozbay, Gulnihal; Main, Christopher R.; Kouhanestani, Zohreh M.; Warner, Mark E.There is little information on the impacts of climate change on resource partitioning for mixotrophic phytoplankton. Here, we investigated the hypothesis that light interacts with temperature and CO2 to affect changes in growth and cellular carbon and nitrogen content of the mixotrophic dinoflagellate, Karlodinium veneficum, with increasing cellular carbon and nitrogen content under low light conditions and increased growth under high light conditions. Using a multifactorial design, the interactive effects of light, temperature and CO2 were investigated on K. veneficum at ambient temperature and CO2 levels (25°C, 375 ppm), high temperature (30°C, 375 ppm CO2), high CO2 (30°C, 750 ppm CO2), or a combination of both high temperature and CO2 (30°C, 750 ppm CO2) at low light intensities (LL: 70 μmol photons m-2 s-2) and light-saturated conditions (HL: 140 μmol photons m-2 s-2). Results revealed significant interactions between light and temperature for all parameters. Growth rates were not significantly different among LL treatments, but increased significantly with temperature or a combination of elevated temperature and CO2 under HL compared to ambient conditions. Particulate carbon and nitrogen content increased in response to temperature or a combination of elevated temperature and CO2 under LL conditions, but significantly decreased in HL cultures exposed to elevated temperature and/or CO2 compared to ambient conditions at HL. Significant increases in C:N ratios were observed only in the combined treatment under LL, suggesting a synergistic effect of temperature and CO2 on carbon assimilation, while increases in C:N under HL were driven only by an increase in CO2. Results indicate light-driven variations in growth and nutrient acquisition strategies for K. veneficum that may benefit this species under anticipated climate change conditions (elevated light, temperature and pCO2) while also affecting trophic transfer efficiency during blooms of this species.Item Projected increase in carbon dioxide drawdown and acidification in large estuaries under climate change(Communications Earth & Environment, 2023-03-13) Li, Ming; Guo, Yijun; Cai, Wei-Jun; Testa, Jeremy M.; Shen, Chunqi; Li, Renjian; Su, JianzhongMost estuaries are substantial sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. The estimated estuarine CO2 degassing is about 17% of the total oceanic uptake, but the effect of rising atmospheric CO2 on estuarine carbon balance remains unclear. Here we use 3D hydrodynamic-biogeochemical models of a large eutrophic estuary and a box model of two generic, but contrasting estuaries to generalize how climate change affects estuarine carbonate chemistry and CO2 fluxes. We found that small estuaries with short flushing times remain a CO2 source to the atmosphere, but large estuaries with long flushing times may become a greater carbon sink and acidify. In particular, climate downscaling projections for Chesapeake Bay in the mid-21st century showed a near-doubling of CO2 uptake, a pH decline of 0.1–0.3, and >90% expansion of the acidic volume. Our findings suggest that large eutrophic estuaries will become carbon sinks and suffer from accelerated acidification in a changing climate.Item Sea-ice loss accelerates carbon cycling and enhances seasonal extremes of acidification in the Arctic Chukchi Sea(Limnology and Oceanography Letters, 2024-02-05) Zhang, Yixing; Wu, Yingxu; Cai, Wei-Jun; Yi, Xiangqi; Gao, Xiang; Bi, Haibo; Zhuang, Yanpei; Chen, Liqi; Qi, DiThe Chukchi Sea shelf (CSS) is a highly productive region in the Arctic Ocean and it is highly efficient for absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide and exporting and retaining carbon in the deep sea. However, with global warming, the carbon retention time in CSS may decrease, leading to less efficient carbon export. Here, we investigate the seasonal variability of carbonate chemistry in CSS using three sets of late- vs. early-summer reoccupations of the same transect. Our findings demonstrate substantially increased and rapid degradation of biologically produced organic matter and therefore acidification over time in the southern CSS due to earlier sea-ice retreat, resulting in significantly shorter carbon retention time. In sharp contrast, no increased degradation has been observed in the northern CSS where photosynthesis has just commenced. In the future, climate change would further diminish the carbon export capacity and exacerbate seasonal acidification not only within CSS but also across other polar coastal oceans. Scientific Significance Statement The Arctic Chukchi Sea shelf (CSS) is a prominent site for the biological drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide, which can subsequently be transported to the deep sea in the Arctic Ocean. The efficiency of carbon export is influenced by seasonal sea-ice formation and retreat: longer period of sea-ice opening results in shorter carbon retention time and reduced carbon export due to rapid recycling of organic matter. However, this process is poorly understood due to lack of observations. Here, we present three sets of late- vs. early-summer reoccupations along the same transect in the CSS. We unveil distinct spatial patterns of carbonate chemistry and subsurface acidification between the southern CSS and northern CSS. In the sCSS, degradation of biologically produced organic matter has occurred rapidly and caused subsurface acidification since early summer due to earlier sea-ice retreat; however, no such phenomenon is observed in the northern region. As Arctic warming continues in the future, these conditions are expected to persist, further diminishing carbon export capacity and exacerbating seasonal acidification.Item The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability(Environmental Research Letters, 2021-09-06) Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Waidelich, Paul; Rising, James; Yumashev, Dmitry; Hope, Chris; Brierley, Chris M.A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the 'social cost of carbon dioxide' (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.Item Unabated Global Ocean Warming Revealed by Ocean Heat Content from Remote Sensing Reconstruction(Remote Sensing, 2023-01-17) Su, Hua; Wei, Yanan; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Zhang, HongshengAs the most relevant indicator of global warming, the ocean heat content (OHC) change is tightly linked to the Earth’s energy imbalance. Therefore, it is vital to study the OHC and heat absorption and redistribution. Here we analyzed the characteristics of global OHC variations based on a previously reconstructed OHC dataset (named OPEN) with four other gridded OHC datasets from 1993 to 2021. Different from the other four datasets, the OPEN dataset directly obtains OHC through remote sensing, which is reliable and superior in OHC reconstruction, further verified by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) radiation flux data. We quantitatively analyzed the changes in the upper 2000 m OHC of the oceans over the past three decades from a multisource and multilayer perspective. Meanwhile, we calculated the global ocean heat uptake to quantify and track the global ocean warming rate and combined it with the Oceanic Niño Index to analyze the global evolution of OHC associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability. The results show that different datasets reveal a continuously increasing and non-decaying global ocean warming from multiple perspectives, with more heat being absorbed by the subsurface and deeper ocean over the past 29 years. The global OHC heating trend from 1993 to 2021 is 7.48 ± 0.17, 7.89 ± 0.1, 10.11 ± 0.16, 7.78 ± 0.17, and 12.8 ± 0.26 × 1022 J/decade according to OPEN, IAP, EN4, Ishii, and ORAS5, respectively, which shows that the trends of the OPEN, IAP, and Ishii datasets are generally consistent, while those of EN4 and ORAS5 datasets are much higher. In addition, the ocean warming characteristics revealed by different datasets are somewhat different. The OPEN OHC dataset from remote sensing reconstruction shows a unique remote sensing mapping advantage, presenting a distinctive warming pattern in the East Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, the OPEN dataset had the largest statistically significant area, with 85.6% of the ocean covered by significant positive trends. The significant and continuous increase in global ocean warming over the past three decades, revealed from remote sensing reconstruction, can provide an important reference for projecting ocean warming in the context of global climate change toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.