School of Marine Science & Policy
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Browsing School of Marine Science & Policy by Subject "climate change"
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Item Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales(Global Change Biology, 2022-06-14) van Woesik, Robert; Shlesinger, Tom; Grottoli, Andréa G.; Toonen, Rob J.; Vega Thurber, Rebecca; Warner, Mark E.; Hulver, Ann Marie; Chapron, Leila; McLachlan, Rowan H.; Albright, Rebecca; Crandall, Eric; DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Donovan, Mary K.; Eirin-Lopez, Jose; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Huang, Danwei; Humanes, Adriana; Krueger, Thomas; Madin, Joshua S.; Manzello, Derek; McManus, Lisa C.; Matz, Mikhail; Muller, Erinn M.; Rodriguez-Lanetty, Mauricio; Vega-Rodriguez, Maria; Voolstra, Christian R.; Zaneveld, JesseThe global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km2) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.Item The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability(Environmental Research Letters, 2021-09-06) Kikstra, Jarmo S.; Waidelich, Paul; Rising, James; Yumashev, Dmitry; Hope, Chris; Brierley, Chris M.A key statistic describing climate change impacts is the 'social cost of carbon dioxide' (SCCO2), the projected cost to society of releasing an additional tonne of CO2. Cost-benefit integrated assessment models that estimate the SCCO2 lack robust representations of climate feedbacks, economy feedbacks, and climate extremes. We compare the PAGE-ICE model with the decade older PAGE09 and find that PAGE-ICE yields SCCO2 values about two times higher, because of its climate and economic updates. Climate feedbacks only account for a relatively minor increase compared to other updates. Extending PAGE-ICE with economy feedbacks demonstrates a manifold increase in the SCCO2 resulting from an empirically derived estimate of partially persistent economic damages. Both the economy feedbacks and other increases since PAGE09 are almost entirely due to higher damages in the Global South. Including an estimate of interannual temperature variability increases the width of the SCCO2 distribution, with particularly strong effects in the tails and a slight increase in the mean SCCO2. Our results highlight the large impacts of climate change if future adaptation does not exceed historical trends. Robust quantification of climate-economy feedbacks and climate extremes are demonstrated to be essential for estimating the SCCO2 and its uncertainty.