Droughts in the midst of conflicts: a mixed-method analysis of water insecurity & civil war duration and outcomes
Date
2024
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Publisher
University of Delaware
Abstract
This dissertation aims to understand the nexus between water insecurity and civil war duration and outcomes. As many civil wars have occurred in places where people’s livelihoods and agricultural production are sensitive to water availability/scarcity, this dissertation examines whether climate change-induced environmental problems, particularly persistent droughts, lead to prolonged civil wars. Given the interconnectedness of human and state security, as highlighted in the human security literature, this dissertation primarily argues that persistent droughts cause protracted civil wars by undermining both human livelihoods and state capacity in ways that force warring parties to alter their strategic calculations regarding whether to end or continue the war. ☐ While a variety of social, political, and economic factors undoubtedly contribute to civil war dynamics, to date, the extant research on civil war duration and outcomes has focused on socio-political and socio-economic factors without considering environmental issues. This study, therefore, examines the contribution of persistent droughts to the prolongation of civil wars and their varying outcomes by changing the balance of power between belligerents. In this regard, this dissertation builds on a mixed-method strategy that combines both quantitative and qualitative analyses to provide internally and externally validated evidence. ☐ The results of the quantitative component show that droughts are more likely to shorten the duration of civil wars, primarily through negotiated settlements and, to a lesser extent, through government victories. Moreover, particularly the weight of agricultural production in the economy and the number of active non-state actors contribute to this result. However, no empirical evidence has been found for civil wars that end in rebel victories. Interestingly, the exclusionary and discriminatory state policies against certain social groups do not have any statistically significant impact on the drought-civil war dynamics nexus. The qualitative component, on the other hand, sheds light on how persistent droughts lead to protracted civil wars and concludes that droughts can prolong civil wars by undermining people’s livelihoods and, more importantly, state capacity. ☐ Nevertheless, droughts are neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for protracted civil wars. Civil wars in which warring parties compete for the control of exploitable natural resources are likely to be prolonged regardless of droughts. In such civil wars, droughts are typically used by central governments as tools for counterinsurgency operations by manipulating famine conditions and international emergency aid. Thus, for droughts to prolong civil wars, at least one of the two conditions must be met: Rebel groups are unable to form a united/coordinated front against government forces in the early stages of the war, and/or government forces conducting counterinsurgency operations are unable to obtain external support, be it financial or military.
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Keywords
Socio-economic factors, Civil war dynamics, Peacebuilding, Environmental security, Ethiopia, Sudan