APEC Staff Papers

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The Mediation of Variance Conflicts: An Empirical Evaluation
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2000-09) Duke, Joshua M.; Jost, Ryan P.
Since 1982, the New Castle County Superior Court in Delaware has promoted mediation, which attempts to resolve filed conflicts prior to trial. This paper evaluates how spatial land-use conflicts channel through mediation and litigation. Data suggest that mediations fail because one of the key disputing parties does not play a direct role in mediation and litigation. The data then inform a predictive model of litigated outcomes in which disputants share in the responsibility for conflict. By alleviating some of the uncertainty of litigation and proposing win-win, mediated outcomes, the model may be used facilitate future mediations.
In-Patient Flow Analysis Using ProModelTM Simulation Package
(Food and Resource Economics Department, 2000-11) Elbeyli, Sema; Krishnan, Palaniappa
This paper emphasizes the basic modeling approach of general in-patient flow in a major hospital in the East Coast region. Simulation was used to analyze the inpatient flow. The first objective of this study was to determine the bottlenecks for in-in-patient flow. In order to understand the general in-patient flow, some emphasis was also given to the other units such as Medical-Surgical, Telemetry, Intensive Care Units (ICU), etc. Second objective was to study the impact of bed availability on the waiting time of admitted patients in ED before being transferred to assigned beds in other units of the hospital. A preliminary model was developed and validated based on the data collected for the selected time periods (busy four months). Different “what-if” scenarios were studied. This paper presents the basic model and its results.
Sequential Land Acquisition for Nature Reserves under Acquisition and Population Uncertainty.
(Food and Resource Economics, 2001-01) Malcolm, Scott A.
Nature reserve planning models to maximize species protection are typically formulated for a single period using certain data. In practice, however, parcels must be acquired over time. The status of a parcel may change due to conversion to alternate land use. Populations of species to be protected may change, as well. A twostage stochastic program that maximizes expected species protection with annual budget constraints is proposed where parcels available for set aside have associated probabilities of being available for acquisition and species coverage. Runs on hypothetical data show that solutions differ from the single period model and depend strongly on the probability of acquisition in future periods.
Is the Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada?
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-03) Awokuse, Titus
Empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the model’s six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.
The Informational Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) Awokuse, Titus; Yang, Jian
This paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that commodity prices signals the future direction of the economy.
Asset Storability and Hedging Effectiveness in Commodity Futures Markets
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) Yang, Jian; Awokuse, Titus
This paper examines risk minimization hedging effectiveness for major storable and nonstorable agricultural commodity futures markets. Based on the error correction model – bivariate GARCH frameworks, some evidence is found that the hedging effectiveness is stronger for storable commodities than nonstorable commodities under consideration. The finding illustrates an important difference between storable and nonstorable commodities with regard to their hedging function.
The Effect of Local Economic Development Policy on Employment Growth in Rural Counties in the Mid-Atlantic Region
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) James, Sara-Beth; Ilvento, Thomas W.; Hastings, Steven E.
This paper analyzes the role of local economic development strategies on employment. Data were collected on employment changes in 146 nonmetro counties along with a survey of economic development offices (99 surveys, 67.8%). Using OLS, results show that counties that increased economic development emphasis had higher employment growth.
Modeling Nitrate Concentration in Ground Water Using Regression and Neural Networks
(Department of Food and Resources Economics, 2003-01) Ramasamy, Nacha; Krishnan, Palaniappa; Bernard, John C.; Ritter, William F.
Nitrate concentration in ground water is a major problem in specific agricultural areas. Using regression and neural networks, this study models nitrate concentration in ground water as a function of iron concentration in ground water, season and distance of the well from a poultry house. Results from both techniques are comparable and show that the distance of the well from a poultry house has a significant effect on nitrate concentration in groundwater.
Modeling Nitrate Loading Rate in Delaware Lakes Using Regression and Neural Networks
(Department of Food and Resources Economics, 2003-01) Sudhakar, Prachi; Krishnan, Palaniappa; Bernard, John C.; Ritter, William F.
The objective of this research was to predict the nitrogen-loading rate to Delaware lakes and streams using regression analysis and neural networks. Both models relate nitrogen-loading rate to cropland, soil type and presence of broiler production. Dummy variables were used to represent soil type and the presence of broiler production at a watershed. Data collected by Ritter & Harris (1984) was used in this research. To build the regression model Statistical Analysis System (SAS) was used. NeuroShell Easy Predictor, neural network software was used to develop the neural network model. Model adequacy was established by statistical techniques. A comparison of the regression and neural network models showed that both perform equally well. Cropland was the only significant variable that had any influence on the nitrogen-loading rate according to both the models.
Moving Beyond Chalk and Talk: Using Problem-Based-Learning In A Research Methods Course Sequence
(Department of Food and Economic Resources, 2003-01) Aull-Hyde, Rhonda; Ilvento, Thomas W.
The average adult can concentrate for only about eight to ten minutes during an hour-long lecture. Thus, students’ ability to absorb information may be seriously impeded if we college professors talk nonstop. One alternative to the traditional “chalk and talk” instructional method is problem-based learning (PBL) – an instructional approach using real world problems as a format for students to acquire critical thinking, problem solving and group interaction skills. We describe how we transformed a two-course sequence in research methods into a problem-based-learning format. Student-reported benefits of the PBL approach include the need for higher-order thinking, improved group interaction skills, relevance of course material to real world situations, higher motivation and an overall higher level of class enjoyment.
Predictive Time Model of an Anglia Autoflow Mechanical Chicken Catching System
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2003-10) Ramasamy, Saravanan; Benson, Eric R.; Bernard, John C.; Van Wicklen, Garrett L.
In this project, a predictive time model was developed for an Anglia Autoflow mechanical chicken catching system. At the completion of poultry growout, hand labor is currently used to collect the birds from the house, although some integrators are beginning to incorporate mechanical catching equipment. Several regression models were investigated with the objective of predicting the time taken to catch the chicken. A regression model relating distance to total time (sum of packing time, catching time, movement to catching and movement to packing) provided the best performance. The model was based on data collected from poultry farms on the Delmarva Peninsula during a six-month period. Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and NeuroShell Easy Predictor were used to build the regression and neural network models respectively. Model adequacy was established by both visual inspection and statistical techniques. The models were validated with experimental results not incorporated into the initial model.
Analysis of Christina School District’s 2003 DSTP Performance
(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2004-01) Mackenzie, John; Christina School District Board of Education
This report summarizes the performance of the Christina School District (CSD) on the 2003 Delaware State Testing Program (DSTP). The 2003 test data represent the final set of results attributable to CSD’s former leadership team, which was replaced in July of 2003. The DSTP tests all public school 3rd, 5th, 8th and 10th graders in three areas: reading, math and writing. Despite its adequate resources, CSD has generally lagged behind most other school districts in Delaware in student DSTP performance. There is a persistent drop-off in student performance between 3rd and 5th grades, due in part to a significant exodus of highperforming 5th grade students to non-CSD schools, and there is little or no recovery in student performance levels between the 5th and 10th grade tests. The 2003 results identify schools and curriculum areas in particular need of improvement.

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