Department of Applied Economics and Statistics
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Department of Applied Economics and Statistics (APEC) carries on an extensive and coordinated program of teaching, public service, and research. The Department is within the College of Agriculture & Natural Resources at the University of Delaware.
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Item Factors Influencing Participation in BR&E Programs: A Study of Local Coordinators in Six States(Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE., 2000-05) Ilvento, Thomas W.; Loveridge, ScottThis study used a telephone survey of coordinators of local Business Retention and Expansion Programs (BR&E). The focus of the of the study was to survey BR&E coordinators who conducted programs in the last five years to better understand the factors that lead the community and the coordinator to undertake a BR&E program. We used state program leaders to identify coordinators in six participating states: Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and West Virginia. The states represented programs that had a similar approach to BR&E in terms of a community approach which used volunteers by design. A total of 94 Coordinators were identified, and 80 responded to the survey during the summer and fall of 1998 (85% response rate). Of those that did not respond, six were no longer working in the community and could not be contacted. Initial contact was made by phone to explain the project and to schedule a phone interview. Following the initial phone contact, a copy of the survey and an explanation of the project was mailed to the respondent. Most of the interviews were conducted over the phone, but in some cases coordinators sent the surveys in the mail. For the most part coordinators reported few concerns or conflicts prior to beginning a BR&E program. However, local coordinators reported that many businesses were not aware of programs available to them and that this was a motivating force in initiating the program. Furthermore, many indicated that citizens were not knowledgeable about economic development and the problems faced by local businesses. In general the coordinators recognized and supported many of the benefits that we generally use to promote BR&E programs. When asked what attracted them to a BR&E program they answered (in order of importance) -- the program emphasized a response to local business needs; it focused on existing local businesses; it allowed for local decision-making; and there was a written report and written priority projects. Coordinators were also asked to rate factors about the program that influenced their personal participation. Their answers reflected a mix of community and personal interests. The factors with the highest rankings were: it would help firms remain and grow; it would help them develop better contacts with businesses; it would help them learn about businesses; it would help their organization; and the program was needed in the community.Item The Mediation of Variance Conflicts: An Empirical Evaluation(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2000-09) Duke, Joshua M.; Jost, Ryan P.Since 1982, the New Castle County Superior Court in Delaware has promoted mediation, which attempts to resolve filed conflicts prior to trial. This paper evaluates how spatial land-use conflicts channel through mediation and litigation. Data suggest that mediations fail because one of the key disputing parties does not play a direct role in mediation and litigation. The data then inform a predictive model of litigated outcomes in which disputants share in the responsibility for conflict. By alleviating some of the uncertainty of litigation and proposing win-win, mediated outcomes, the model may be used facilitate future mediations.Item In-Patient Flow Analysis Using ProModelTM Simulation Package(Food and Resource Economics Department, 2000-11) Elbeyli, Sema; Krishnan, PalaniappaThis paper emphasizes the basic modeling approach of general in-patient flow in a major hospital in the East Coast region. Simulation was used to analyze the inpatient flow. The first objective of this study was to determine the bottlenecks for in-in-patient flow. In order to understand the general in-patient flow, some emphasis was also given to the other units such as Medical-Surgical, Telemetry, Intensive Care Units (ICU), etc. Second objective was to study the impact of bed availability on the waiting time of admitted patients in ED before being transferred to assigned beds in other units of the hospital. A preliminary model was developed and validated based on the data collected for the selected time periods (busy four months). Different “what-if” scenarios were studied. This paper presents the basic model and its results.Item Sequential Land Acquisition for Nature Reserves under Acquisition and Population Uncertainty.(Food and Resource Economics, 2001-01) Malcolm, Scott A.Nature reserve planning models to maximize species protection are typically formulated for a single period using certain data. In practice, however, parcels must be acquired over time. The status of a parcel may change due to conversion to alternate land use. Populations of species to be protected may change, as well. A twostage stochastic program that maximizes expected species protection with annual budget constraints is proposed where parcels available for set aside have associated probabilities of being available for acquisition and species coverage. Runs on hypothetical data show that solutions differ from the single period model and depend strongly on the probability of acquisition in future periods.Item A Spatial Analysis of the Distributional Effects of Water Quantity Management(Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE., 2001-04) Ehemann, Robert, W.; Duke, Joshua M.; Mackenzie, JohnWater supply managers in growing areas must address increasing demand for an essentially fixed, though highly variable, resource. This worldwide problem inevitably arises as demand increases with population and standards of living (Loucks 1999, Mayor 1997). Currently, 505 million people live in water-scarce or water-stressed conditions, and this number could rise to 3.2 billion people by the year 2025 (Dunphy 2000). Water-stressed locations are not necessarily arid regions of the world. Nonporous materials in urban and suburban areas prevent rainwater from percolating through the soil. Excess water becomes runoff, which erodes riverbeds, prevents groundwater recharge, and exacerbates water supply issues. Spatially, suburban growth distributes the demand for water over a greater area. Water delivery requires increasingly more infrastructure, including holding tanks, reservoirs, treatment plants, and pumping stations. At the very least, suburban growth adds miles of new piping to the system and requires a tremendous amount of water to keep the lines full. This paper investigates the relationship between the spatial distribution of the residential population and residential water demand. Specifically, three water quantity management strategies are compared in times of deficit. Conservation is the root of demand-side management. However, conservation has many interpretations. Chesnutt and Beecher (1998) describe ecological, hydrological, traditional-economic, and resource-economic perspectives on conservation. The ecological perspective emphasizes ethical constraints to avoid the consequences of over consuming in a common property setting. The hydrological perspective focuses on the water cycle and engineering solutions to maintain water supply. Water allocation efficiency through pricing guides the traditional-economic perspective, while the resource-economic perspective merges a sustainability criterion with the traditional perspective. Any attempt to implement water management policy will undoubtedly satisfy those with one perspective and offend others. For instance, objections to the use of price arise from those who see it as insufficiently addressing ethical or supply concerns. This paper attempts to address such concerns by examining the distributional and supply impacts on residents when water scarcity pricing is implemented.Item Designing a Web-based Interface for Student Peer Review on a Unix Server(Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE., 2002-02) Duke, Joshua M.; Whisler, JeffThis report describes an application of and the procedures for developing a web-based interface on a Unix server, using a simple guestbook program. The advantage of the guestbook platform is that it is commonly available on college campuses and can be secured. The application facilitates problem-based learning and other active-learning goals in an undergraduate seminar in environmental law. This report provides an example of the application and reviews the programming necessary to accomplish the learning goals.Item Public Support for Land Preferences: Measuring Relative Preferences in Delaware(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-02) Duke, Joshua M.; Ilvento, Thomas W.; Hyde, Rhonda A.Public preferences for nonmarket services of preserved land in Delaware are measured using two survey techniques. The results of a conjoint experiment, using a sample of 199 Delawareans, suggest that the environmental and agricultural attributes of preserved land are most important to the residents. The conjoint results also suggest that these services are of substantial value to Delawareans; at the margin, at least, agricultural and environmental preserved land provide net benefits to the public. The analytic hierarchy process is used to assess separate survey results from 129 Delawareans. The results provide specific weights on the relative importance of attributes and qualities of preserved land, which in large part replicate and reinforce the results of the conjoint experiment. Overall, Delawareans seem to be most concerned with keeping farming as a way of life, having access to locally grown agricultural commodities, protecting water quality, and preserving rural character.Item Is the Export-Lead Growth Hypothesis Valid for Canada?(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-03) Awokuse, TitusEmpirical evidence linking exports to economic growth has been mixed and inconclusive. This study re-examine the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for Canada by testing for Granger causality from exports to national output growth using vector error correction models (VECM) and the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology developed in Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Application of recent developments in time series modeling and the inclusion of relevant variables omitted in previous studies help clarify the contradictory results from prior studies on the Canadian economy. The empirical results suggest that a long-run steady state exists among the model’s six variables and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP.Item Land Use Issues in Delaware Agriculture(Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE., 2002-04) Duke, Joshua M.; Mackenzie, John; Ilvento, Thomas W.Can Delaware’s agriculture coexist (and prosper) in the face of competing land uses over the next twenty years? We believe that maintaining Delaware’s agriculture as a viable land-use alternative depends on the success in addressing three critical challenges. First, will residential, commercial, and industrial land uses be forced to bear the full costs that their land-use decisions visit on Delaware agriculture? Alternatively, will agriculture be fully compensated for its contribution to Delaware’s economy and quality of life? An associated, second challenge, is whether state, county, and local governments will institute incentive-based policies to achieve socially desirable land-use outcomes? It is particularly important that there exist policies to protect and to promote diverse land uses within all three counties. Finally, will spatial land-use patterns evolve, which ensure that agriculture maintains the critical masses necessary for the industry’s economic viability and which insulate producers from the complaints and threats of nonagricultural neighbors? This paper expands on these three challenges and then reviews data on trends in agricultural land use to draw conclusions.Item StatLab Annual Report, Spring 2002(Food and Resource Economics Department, 2002-06) Rejto, Lidia; Cho, Seoae; Ilvento, Thomas W.Item The Informational Role of Commodity Prices in Formulating Monetary Policy: A Reexamination(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) Awokuse, Titus; Yang, JianThis paper reexamines the issue of whether commodity prices provide useful information for formulating monetary policy through the application of recent development in time series methodology developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). We found that commodity prices signals the future direction of the economy.Item Asset Storability and Hedging Effectiveness in Commodity Futures Markets(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) Yang, Jian; Awokuse, TitusThis paper examines risk minimization hedging effectiveness for major storable and nonstorable agricultural commodity futures markets. Based on the error correction model – bivariate GARCH frameworks, some evidence is found that the hedging effectiveness is stronger for storable commodities than nonstorable commodities under consideration. The finding illustrates an important difference between storable and nonstorable commodities with regard to their hedging function.Item The Effect of Local Economic Development Policy on Employment Growth in Rural Counties in the Mid-Atlantic Region(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-06) James, Sara-Beth; Ilvento, Thomas W.; Hastings, Steven E.This paper analyzes the role of local economic development strategies on employment. Data were collected on employment changes in 146 nonmetro counties along with a survey of economic development offices (99 surveys, 67.8%). Using OLS, results show that counties that increased economic development emphasis had higher employment growth.Item Farm Sector of Delaware Agriculture: Changes from 1982 - 1997(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2002-09) Hastings, Steven E.; Maher, Sharon E.; Acuff, Peter Z.Agriculture contains a vast array of economic activities to produce and provide food, fiber and related products and services. These economic activities can be divided into three sectors: the farm sector, agribusiness and the public sector. Using data from the 1982 and 1997 Censuses of Agriculture, this bulletin documents changes in the farm sector of Delaware agriculture over the 1982 - 1997 time period. It is an update to the Agricultural Experiment Station Bulletin #503, The Farm Sector of Delaware Agriculture: Trends from 1982 – 1992 (Tytus, Hastings and Cole, 1995). Overall, the analysis finds that the farm sector of Delaware agriculture continues to change. Reasons for the change remain the same as they have been for several decades: continued population growth, emerging technologies, evolving and waning demand for agricultural products, fluctuating domestic and international markets, changing consumer preferences, economic conditions both locally and nationally, increasing environmental concerns and growing competition for critical resources, such as land and water. These factors have affected the farm sector of Delaware throughout the last century and will continue to influence in into the 21st century.Item Modeling Nitrate Concentration in Ground Water Using Regression and Neural Networks(Department of Food and Resources Economics, 2003-01) Ramasamy, Nacha; Krishnan, Palaniappa; Bernard, John C.; Ritter, William F.Nitrate concentration in ground water is a major problem in specific agricultural areas. Using regression and neural networks, this study models nitrate concentration in ground water as a function of iron concentration in ground water, season and distance of the well from a poultry house. Results from both techniques are comparable and show that the distance of the well from a poultry house has a significant effect on nitrate concentration in groundwater.Item Modeling Nitrate Loading Rate in Delaware Lakes Using Regression and Neural Networks(Department of Food and Resources Economics, 2003-01) Sudhakar, Prachi; Krishnan, Palaniappa; Bernard, John C.; Ritter, William F.The objective of this research was to predict the nitrogen-loading rate to Delaware lakes and streams using regression analysis and neural networks. Both models relate nitrogen-loading rate to cropland, soil type and presence of broiler production. Dummy variables were used to represent soil type and the presence of broiler production at a watershed. Data collected by Ritter & Harris (1984) was used in this research. To build the regression model Statistical Analysis System (SAS) was used. NeuroShell Easy Predictor, neural network software was used to develop the neural network model. Model adequacy was established by statistical techniques. A comparison of the regression and neural network models showed that both perform equally well. Cropland was the only significant variable that had any influence on the nitrogen-loading rate according to both the models.Item Moving Beyond Chalk and Talk: Using Problem-Based-Learning In A Research Methods Course Sequence(Department of Food and Economic Resources, 2003-01) Aull-Hyde, Rhonda; Ilvento, Thomas W.The average adult can concentrate for only about eight to ten minutes during an hour-long lecture. Thus, students’ ability to absorb information may be seriously impeded if we college professors talk nonstop. One alternative to the traditional “chalk and talk” instructional method is problem-based learning (PBL) – an instructional approach using real world problems as a format for students to acquire critical thinking, problem solving and group interaction skills. We describe how we transformed a two-course sequence in research methods into a problem-based-learning format. Student-reported benefits of the PBL approach include the need for higher-order thinking, improved group interaction skills, relevance of course material to real world situations, higher motivation and an overall higher level of class enjoyment.Item Farmland Preservation Techniques: Identifying New Options(2003-06) Duke, Joshua M.; Lynch, LoriThis report describes over 20 novel techniques for preserving agricultural land. Using a survey of various literatures, phone interviews with program managers, and original policy design, these techniques are explained and categorized. A conceptual framework is offered that distinguishes the various roles governments can assume in order to affect outcomes in agricultural land markets. These roles are regulatory, incentive-based, and governmental participatory. Also, a fourth category of hybrid techniques are presented.Item StatLab Annual Report, 2002-2003 Academic Year(2003-08) Rejto, Lidia; Ilvento, Thomas W.; Cai, Xiangrong; Nedanov, Pavel; Xu, YihuanThe purpose of this report is to briefly describe the activities of the StatLab during the 2002/2003 academic year. The StatLab (Statistical Laboratory) was first established at the University of Delaware in 1983. In the Spring of 1997, the lab closed its operation. In 2001, the Statistics Program left the Mathematics Department and moved into the Department of Food and Resource Economics. As part of this move the graduate program in statistics was re-established as was the StatLab.Item Predictive Time Model of an Anglia Autoflow Mechanical Chicken Catching System(Department of Food and Resource Economics, 2003-10) Ramasamy, Saravanan; Benson, Eric R.; Bernard, John C.; Van Wicklen, Garrett L.In this project, a predictive time model was developed for an Anglia Autoflow mechanical chicken catching system. At the completion of poultry growout, hand labor is currently used to collect the birds from the house, although some integrators are beginning to incorporate mechanical catching equipment. Several regression models were investigated with the objective of predicting the time taken to catch the chicken. A regression model relating distance to total time (sum of packing time, catching time, movement to catching and movement to packing) provided the best performance. The model was based on data collected from poultry farms on the Delmarva Peninsula during a six-month period. Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and NeuroShell Easy Predictor were used to build the regression and neural network models respectively. Model adequacy was established by both visual inspection and statistical techniques. The models were validated with experimental results not incorporated into the initial model.